FPL Point Projections Updated with Risk Indicators

We've added risk indicators or 'flags' to each player in our point projections where the projection looks off or the data doesn't tell the whole story.

We've made an important update to our Point Projections for Fantasy Premier League. We have added 'risk flags' next to any player that satisfies either of the following criteria:

  • Data Risk (DR) - the player has started 3 games or less over the last 8 gameweeks and his modelled projection may contain anomaly data.
  • Conversion Risk (CR) - the player has scored 30% or less points over the last 8 gameweeks than his statistical projection would suggest.

We wished we'd done this last week for the FPL team which we are doing purely by these projections. With Silva injured we transferred in Cazorla who was the highest projected midfielder we could afford. The subsequent next best was Steven Gerrard.

We discussed at the time that Cazorla was a 'data risk' in that he'd only really played a few games and in such cases one good game/bad can really bias the model. As we wish to ignore any inside knowledge of how the projections are built and treat them purely on face value we transferred Cazorla in regardless.

We did however make the point that if a player is data risk we can use our own judgement from prior seasons to see if the player should be considered worthy of his projection and in the case of Cazorla we have to agree he is, and over time we hope will live up to it. We're just being greedy really, wishing we had those 11 points from Gerrard in the bank!

We'll have more info on these risk flags and how we'll use them the next time we update our projected team and do a projected team of the week. Until then take a look at the latest projections and as always you get in touch with us on Twitter if you have any queries about the projections or a particular player. We have also updated our cumulative Player Ratings and Fixture Analyser.

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