How Mesut Özil Got to the Top of our FPL Point Projections

If you've taken a look our latest Point Projections for Fantasy Premier League you'll no doubt have noticed that Arsenal's Mesut Özil sits as the very top for all players over the next 6 gameweeks

We thought this would serve as a good example to explain a little more how the point projections work.

1. Team Goals

At the simplest level, we work out expected goals scored per team in each game in very much the same way bookmakers do. We currently have Arsenal's attacking strength at 1.95 goals/game, ranked second behind City with 2.05 goals/game. This would mean Arsenal are on course for around 75 goals this season.

We do the same for goals against for all teams and using both we can estimate goals scored/conceded in each game through the forthcoming fixtures. Arsenal are forecast to score 1.9 goals against Crystal Palace this weekend. That might not sound a lot but you have to remember this is the average value we'd expect over multiple games.

2. Player Share

From our analysis of the data from each and every game we work out each player's goal threat and chances created taking shot/pass location and type into account as per usual. You'll have seen this in our weekly and cumulative player ratings as xGoals and xAssists.

The next step is to work out from the games the players has played what his share of xGoals and xAssists has been in those games. As you can see from the graphic, Ozil's share of xGoals and xAssists is 11% and 29% respectively

3. Team Goals x Player Share

It is then a simple step to multiply the two together to work out how many goals and assists a player will get in any given game. Ozil's goal threat is decent but his assists threat is still the driving force behind his game. Based on 75 goals scored we currently forecast him to score a modest 8 goals this season but a mighty 21 assists. To put this into perspective Juan Mata hit 11 goals and 18 assists last season from 31 starts.

The calculation is done on a per game basis rather than per season and we are forecasting Ozil to score 0.21 goals (xG) against Palace and 0.56 assists (xA). Again, this is the average we'd expect if Ozil played this game many times over.

4. Factor in FPL Point Scoring and Bonus Points

Once we have expected goals (xG) and assists (xA) for a game we can factor in the FPL point scoring rules, starting with 2 points for playing but then multiplying xG by 5 for a goal (for a midfielder) and xA by 3 for an assist. Next we add in bonus points (BP). On average players score an extra 1.7 BP per goal and 0.4 BP per assists. As we discussed in this post, not all players are equal in the eyes of the bonus points system so we take into account each player's baseBPS.

Ozil is a pretty good bet for bonus points with plenty of successful passing and key passes to earn him a decent baseBPS score, so in the calculation he gets an extra 1 BP per goal or assist. This is one variable that we need to keep an eye on over the season as we get more data. Finally we add in expected Clean Sheet points which for Ozil won't be much but does add a little extra over the weeks.

And that is pretty much it, and why we have forecast Ozil for a grand total around 215 points this season. These projections are not perfect of course but we hope this explanation has given you a better understanding of where they come from.

In our free newsletter this week as well as the usual transfer tips and latest on our own team we have put together a full FPL team optimised for the best projected score over the next 10 GW. You can sign up for the newsletter here.

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