This table shows the Fantasy Premier League Forwards who are currently topping our xPt Ratings. This is a statistical measurement of a player's expected attacking points from the quality and quantity of shots and key passes made and expected number of goals and assist from these.
It's not very surprising to see which players are topping this list, they are the one's that have scored the goals, but this demonstrates the power of these rankings. The top players aren't super-human. They simply play for a team that creates great chances for them and then they convert those chances at the rate which Premier League forwards should.
Giroud and Sturridge are joint top scorers with Benteke but importantly both have scored all their goals from open play. Benteke and Soldado have relied on penalties to boost their early tally. Is this something you want to rely on through the season? Van Persie is lurking ominously here. This is despite two very tough games for United. He's still had chances to score and of course rattled two great goals past Swansea.
Jelavic is the anomaly in this list. His stats say he should be good for a goal by now. He did pick up an assist from a rebounded shot which Coleman tucked away to grab all the glory. Jelavic appears to have continued from where he was last season, just unable to finish the chances he gets. Lambert, in contrast, has had a few less chances but has managed to score. People are starting to offload Lambert already but the stats support his case as a good striker for £7.5m. Of course, Giroud, Sturridge and co. are not much more expensive and are looking much more potent.
Our suggested interpretation of these stats is if a player has a high xPts AND is scoring points then he definitely a player to consider for your team. If his xPts are high but he's not scoring (i.e. Jelavic) then he has either been unlucky or perhaps isn't very good. It's rare that Premier League forwards "aren't very good" though, but a lack of confidence such as with Jelavic can really hurt a player's natural ability to find the net. Most telling of all is if a player has scored points but does NOT have a good xPts to back that up. He's probably got lucky and should not be expected to repeat the trick.