We have updated our Point Projections for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) with all the latest data. You can find them here.
The model now takes account of all player's baseBPS score that we talked about earlier this week, this being the underlying stats behind the the Bonus Point System (BPS). The projection model now awards an increased likelihood of bonus points for players with a high baseBPS.
Example - If Chelsea are forecast to have a good chance of a clean sheet then John Terry will be forecast to score more bonus points from that clean sheet than other Chelsea players.
This is a subtle but we think significant adjustment to the projections that we'll continue to analyse and adjust a little as time goes on.
The key to thing to remember about the projections is that they are wholly determined on a player's and team's underlying stats only. Actual goals, assists, clean sheets, etc, are not counted.
Football is the game it is because goals are rare. For the same reason we can't really trust them after just a few weeks to forecast what may happen. The events that drive the goals though - shots, shots on target, etc. - are much more numerous and have been shown to predictable.
We have some posts around the Projections and further analysis planned soon , including a Projected Best Team.