Fantasy Form: Home & Away

We continue our series looking at form in Fantasy Premier League, this time looking at the difference in points scored home and away

In the lull between what is sure to be a legendary gameweek in FPL we take a step back to crunch some numbers and look at form in FPL. Following on from our previous analysis of players maintaining form and finding form we now take a look at the differences between form home and away.

For all players of all positions and prices there is of course an advantage to playing at home. The average player will score you 3.9 points per game (PPG) playing at home compared to 3.3 PPG playing away,or 3.6 PPG across all games. This would mean if you stuck to a super strict policy of only ever playing home players in your FPL team you'd score about 6% more points than if you disregarded the location and played an equal mix of home.away players.

As with our previous analyses though, we've broken the players down by their position and price band to add some more context and see where the trends really lie.

Cheap Players

£m Home PPG Away PPG Home+
Goalkeeper 4.5 3.7 3.4

Defender 4.5 3.2 2.5

Midfielder 6 3.2 2.8

Forward 6 3.5 3.2

Midpriced Players

£m Home PPG Away PPG Home+
Goalkeeper 5.5 3.8 3.5

Defender 5.5 3.5 2.7

Midfielder 7.5 3.5 3.0

Forward 8 3.8 3.6

Expensive Players

£m Home PPG Away PPG Home+
Goalkeeper 5.5+ 3.9 3.5

Defender 5.5+ 3.8 3.0

Midfielder 7.5+ 3.7 3.2

Forward 8+ 4.5 4.2

As you see from the tables, regardless of price it's primarily defenders who benefit from home advantage with midfielders the second most likely. Goalkeepers and Forwards have averaged 10% more points per game at home compared to away. However, only selecting home players every week for you FPL team is obviously not a feasible strategy so we've compared players's home form to their overall season form and this is what is shown in the "Home+" column.. This suggests forwards and goalkeepers will score only 2-4% more points at home than if you played them home and away.

Defenders played only at home will pick you on average 10% more points if you enforced a 'home-only' selection strategy. This clearly shows the strength in the popular 'home rotation' tactic employed by many veteran fantasy football managers. In fact, these numbers would suggest an average cheap defender at home would outscore his more expensive peer away from home, the cheapie averaging 3.2PPG at home compared to 3.0 PPG for the more expensive guy. It has to be said though that the same popular strategy for goalkeeper rotation does not look so profitable. A decent cheap goalkeeper this season offers a lot of value and consistency and we expect a few more bonus points thrown the 'keepers way has helped with this.

The biggest surprise to us is seen in the midfield. The increased home bias would be understandable of the cheaper midfielders but actually the trend is more evident in the increased price brackets where mids are good for 7-8% more points at home compared to when played both home and away. We've looked at some of the big names in midfield this season. Hazard has 7.3PPG at home compared to 5.1 PPG away. YYT is 7.1 PPG at home to 3.9 away, Lallana 5.9 home to 4.7 away. It gets worse further down. Mirallas is 6.8 vs. 2.8, Nolan 6.0 to 3.7. Only Silva and Ramsey have a significantly better away record of the top midfielders.

No FPL manager in their right mind would suggest benching elite midfielders like Hazard and Yaya but there is perhaps cause to think more carefully about selecting players like Mirallas and Nolan considering home and away form and fixtures. At their prices (~£7m) a home rotation policy is difficult to realise. Forgoing these type of players in favour of a rotating pair of cheaper (but not budget) mids, or even with a defender, may be a worthy strategy for next next season.

Check these out too...

How Reliable is Form in Fantasy Premier League?

If a player is in good form how likely is this to continue?

Desperately Seeking Form

In the second of the series, we look at how many players bounce back to find some form in FPL

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