Fixture Outlook GW28-30

Which clubs have the strongest fixtures for the next 3 gameweeks?

Team Fixtures GW28 GW29 GW30 GW28-30
ARS STO(A) blank TOT(A) 1.9 - 1.9 3.7

2

AST NOR(H) blank CHE(H) 1.1 - 0.6 1.8

3

CAR TOT(A) FUL(H) EVE(A) 0.9 1.6 0.6 3.2

CHE FUL(A) TOT(H) AVL(A) 2.2 2.3 1.2 5.7

CRY SWA(A) SOT(H) SUN(A) 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.1

EVE WHM(H) blank CAR(H) 1.7 - 2.9 4.6

FUL CHE(H) CAR(A) NEW(H) 1.1 0.5 2.3 3.9

HUL NEW(H) blank MCI(H) 1.6 - 1.0 2.6

LIV SOT(A) blank MUN(A) 2.1 - 1.4 3.5

MCI blank blank HUL(A) - - 1.1 1.1

MAN blank WBA(A) LIV(H) - 1.0 1.2 2.2

NEW HUL(A) blank FUL(A) 0.8 - 1.8 2.6

NOR AVL(A) STO(H) SOT(A) 0.8 1.4 1.0 3.3

SOU LIV(H) CPL(A) NOR(H) 1.2 0.6 1.7 3.5

STO ARS(H) NOR(A) WHM(H) 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.6

SUN blank blank CPL(H) - - 0.5 0.5

SWA CPL(H) blank WBA(H) 1.3 - 1.0 2.3

TOT CAR(H) CHE(A) ARS(H) 2.2 0.8 1.2 4.2

WBA blank MUN(H) SWA(A) - 1.0 0.8 1.8

WHM EVE(A) blank STO(A) 0.6 - 0.9 1.6

With most of the highest scoring clubs missing out in GW29 and a raft of double gameweeks to jam in from GW31 onwards we thought we’d have a close look at the fixtures in between now and then.

We’ve calculated the expected goals for each club in GW28 to GW30 using our ‘Expected Goal’ model and you can find the values in the table above. We’ve verified the values against the latest bookies odds and it all looks good so let’s go ahead and look at the strongest teams to pick from.

Later on this week we’ll have a look at some of the top picks from each team with the logic that these represent good short term buys before attention turns back to the double gameweek bonanza from GW31.

Chelsea

Chelsea are unsurprisingly at the top, and by a good margin too; the only Top 4 club with a fixture in each gameweek. The arrival at Craven Cottage of disciplinarian Felix Magath does dampen our estimate of Chelsea’s goals against Fulham a little, but not a great extent and overall Mourihno’s team have three games where scoring opportunities should be plentiful.

Everton

We’re surprised to see a team with just two games so high in the rankings but a closer look reveals a lot is staked in the GW30 home game with Cardiff. Adding a Toffee to your fantasy team can wait a couple of weeks but don’t be too keen to sell if you don’t have to; they have one of the very best run of games in March.

Tottenham

As with Everton, Spurs short term fixtures are boosted by a game with Cardiff, so much so that Adebayor looks a feasible captain option for GW28. Following this though Spurs take on Chelsea away and Arsenal at home which means there’s a lot riding on one game of the next three for any signing you make this week. We do though think Adebayor is probably a viable season keeper at this stage if you can weather a somewhat fallow spell through March.

Fulham

Whoa there, Sonny Jim… Fulham? Yup. The expected 1.1 goals in their match with Chelsea may be a bit over-inflated but a home game is a home game after all. Their following two games with Newcastle and Cardiff do offer a chance of real points. Furthermore, Fulham's rankings in our data are based on a very poor season. Any improvement eeked out by Magath would boost their appeal. Their run in to season end is not too shabby either. Definitely a differential option.

Southampton

Whilst they may not figure too high up in our table the Saints are a very capable outfit and are an obvious source of points from here through to GW30. The home game with Liverpool will be a difficult one to win but you can’t really see Southampton being kept off the scoresheet the way Liverpool are defending. Scoring at Palace may prove a more difficult task deal but the Norwich home game should get things back on track.

Stay tuned as later this week we’ll have a look at some of the obvious picks and differentials from these clubs.

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