GW5 Attack and Defence Rankings

A look at the attacking and defensive ratings for all fixtures in GW5.

You'll find GW5 rankings in the tale below. The numbers here are drawn from the predicted goal values in our updated Fixture Analyser. As mentioned in a post earlier this week, much of the team's rankings are based on last year's numbers as such there are a few caveats to throw in this week. Following Gameweek 6 we'll complete a full refresh of all team's attacking and defensive performances.

Liverpool top the GW5 ratings away at West Ham. However they topped these ratings last week at home to Aston Villa and look how that turned out. The Reds are not the same team without Suarez. Without Sturridge as well they really lack a cutting edge. They'll really need Sterling to be at his best and Balotelli to find his next gear if they are to put West Ham to the sword this weekend.

Everton's impressive 4-1 victory over Wolfsburg in midweek will give them a great lift ahead of the GW5 home game with Crystal Palace. If anything, Everton have improved offensively this season and Crystal Palace have gone backwards with Pulis gone. Expect a fair few goals for the Toffees and form players Naismith, Mirallas, Coleman and Baines should be backed for healthy points this weekend.

The Man City vs Chelsea game is the big clanger in these ratings. We have actually significantly adjusted Chelsea in our ratings in pre-season based on the Costa and Fabregas signings - but obviously not by enough! Man City's favourable ranking here is also another wrinkle that needs to be understood with typical prediction algorithms. It's based on average goal scored and conceded across all games and against all opposition. Head to heads like this one will significantly affect the mentality of both clubs going into the game. Last season Chelsea were pushing strongly for the title and arrived at the Etihad in full-on Mourinho defensive mode. They won 1-0, but City certainly had good chances to score and win the game.

There are pointers up and down for both sides. City are at home, but had to travel to Germany midweek, whilst Chelsea stayed in England. Chelsea are in incredible groove going forward right now but have looked suspect defensively. City are not at their free-flowing best, but are still defending champions and an incredibly capable side. City have also shown a slighlty more defensive outlook to games this season. It's an intriguing game, that's for sure, and a look at the bookies odds shows just how close it could be; City are ever so slight favourites to win, whilst Costa and Aguero have been given equal odds for an anytime goal.

It may well be Manchester United who score the most goals and points for fantasy managers again this week. Leicester have received credit for their results so far this season but their underlying numbers look terrible; they are joint bottom with QPR for chances conceded so far in our expected goals model. We’d expect United to name an unchanged line-up for this one with no need to rush Falcao into action. There could, therefore, be significant points in store for Wayne Rooney as a popular alternative captain choice to Diego Costa who leads fantasy captain polls currently..

Arsenal’s prospects away at Villa is another game where we'd steer away from these ratings. Villa’s recent defensive form looks very convincing so far and they are one team that we will be looking to bump up in the GW6 refresh. On their day we’d still expect Arsenal to put 2 or 3 goals past Villa, but on the back of another demanding away trip to Dortmund and with Villa in definat mood we wouldn’t look too hopefully on great returns from any Arsenal player this weekend. Instead, fierce rivals Tottenham Hotspur should have things their way, with many of their first team rested for the trip to Belgrade and a much more agreeable opponent in West Brom visiting White Hart Lane

Defensively Everton, Spurs and Manchester United look the most likely beneficiary of clean sheet points in GW5, with Burnley, Hull and QPR the lower-table clubs with the best fixtures on the day. 

 

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