The insideFPL Fixture Analyser has evolved. For this update you can now choose to look at forthcoming fixtures in a number of useful ways as well as use the filters to highlight the types of fixtures you’re interested in. Here’s the skinny:
- Basic – rate fixtures by defensive strength of opposition only
- Weighted – fixtures weighted by relevant basic attack and defence of both teams
- Predicted Goals – actual value of predicted goals scored.
- Toggle the view between Attack and Defence.
- Filter fixtures by Home and Away
- Filter fixtures from Best to Worst.
Basic Fixture Analyser
This is what you’ll be used to from any other fantasy football website.In our database we’ve give each team a basic rating from 1 to 5 for both home and away attack and defence, which is then used to rate the fixture. Using Chelsea as an example – we’ve rated their home defence as a 5 (the best). If anyone has to go to Stamford Bridge then their fixture will be rated as the “Worst” in the attacking view and highlighted in bright red.
Weighted Fixture Analyser
One downside of any opponent-only view above is it can make some teams fixtures look extremely good, when actually the team you’re looking at are one of the lowest scoring in the division, and thus signing a player from this team, even though “they have great fixtures”, will look more attractive than actually should be. The weighted version of the Fixture Analyser combines the give team’s attacking strength with the opposition’s defence to give what is in essence a coarse estimate of the number of goals that will be scored or conceded. What this will typically show you is that all the best teams are going to score the most goals, even through "bad fixtures", which is what you want for your FPL team right?
Less is More
Having designed fixture analysers for a few seasons now we’ve taken the step this year to limit team ratings to values from 1 to 5 (rather than 1 to 10 for example). This, of course, is deliberate and we’ve given it plenty of thought. Firstly, we think a Fixture Analyser should be first and foremost a simple heads-up tool, and limiting the values and thus the colour scheme to 5 allows this. Secondly, at the end of the day, there is not actually that much difference between teams. There are the best teams and worst teams, good teams and bad ones, and then a bunch of average ones. Adding increased complexity between these layers doesn’t actually add much value, and can also increase the inherent errors.
But More is More Too!
We’ve countered any concern of over-simplifying the basic and weighted views above with a full predicted goals view; currently for attack only but defence will be added in due course. As well as the basic ratings (1 to 5) we of course have the actual values for goals scored and against values for each team and using the industry standard method can thus make a prediction (or, more accurately, a forecast) for actual goals scored in each game for each team. These values are based on last season’s data currently with a few minor adjustments. We'll give these settings a full refresh after GW6.
What About Recent Form?
As mentioned, the values for the Fixture Analyser are currently predominantly based on last season’s totals and we’re not about to radically change these based on a handful of games. Just because Chelsea have only 1 clean sheet and Aston Villa have 3 we’re not going to radically adjust our core opinion of the defensive ability of these two teams. We typically wait at least 6 weeks to make serious adjustments to team ratings. We do plan however add a few more features to help indicate recent form. For example, we are planning to add symbols to highlight where either recent form or historical results differ significantly from the expectation. We'll also be adding more quick filters to highlight or compare individual teams, and enable sorting on all the views.
We’d Love Your Feedback!
We have a lot of ideas on the drawing board and hope to keep innovating and bringing you useful tools to help you with your team. If you have any ideas or suggestions on how you typically use any fixture tool like this and what you want to see from them we would love to hear about it. Please let us know in the comments section below. Thanks!