The Best £6M Midfielders in Fantasy Premier League

In this post we’re kicking of part one of our ‘Reader’s Mailbag’ and answering a common question we received – who are the best mid-priced midfielders for Fantasy Premier League 2014/15?

Last week we sent out a newsletter asking for people’s questions – what were the key issues and dilemmas people had over their FPL teams right now? We had a great response and very soon we will be sending out a follow-up email with all the answers.

In this post, though, we want to respond to one particular question that was asked in various ways by a few people. Thanks to Harry, Zoe and Alvor for the question.

Who is the best £6M midfielder?

To answer this question we’ve decided to use one of our own personal favourite tools in our Pre-Season Guide. We’ve crunched the most important stats for FPL and put them in a datatable which can be filtered/sorted by player price, position, minutes played, etc.  Below is an excerpt from a filter we did looking for Midfielders priced £6M.

The table is sorted on the P90 column – this is points per 90 minutes and helps to normalise the players against playing time to see who has the most potential.

Gylfi Sigurdsson

First up is current site fave Gylfi Sigurdsson (or Siggy to or his mates). Hopefully you can easily see why we like him. His stats from last season are with Spurs of course but, without getting into too finer details, Spurs weren’t all that much better going forward last year than Swansea were, especially when Siggy (this okay, mate?) was playing regularly early season under Villas-Boas. He also scored at a great points rate in his first half-season with Swansea with an 'elite player' P90 of 6.1.

Next up are two players in Hernandez and Giaccherini who are not nailed on for their respective teams, Swansea and Sunderland. Hernandez could well leave the Swans this year too. Both have a lot of potential in Fantasy Premier League – but not unless they are playing. 

Jason Puncheon

Moving down, we come to Jason Puncheon. He had a great season last year as well as with Southampton over the previous campaign. He’s a particularly intriguing option and is on the fringes of Ben’s team here at InsideFPL. Looking closer at Puncheon's stats we can he has the highest shots in box averages (SiB) at this price/position. A good sign, and a good time to mention the final column in this table – Threat. 

What is Threat?

Threat is an aggregate rating based on a player’s average shots in box (SiB) and Key Passes (KP). These are combined with the position scoring rules for FPL (e.g. 5 pts for a goal for a midfielder). This is quite heavily eighted towards goals over assist due to more bonus points going the way of goalscores.

To allow better comparisons, we present a player’s Threat score relative to the best and worst in his position. It is not fair to compare a midfielders shooting potential to that of a striker. For reference, Theo Walcott has the highest threat of any midfielder last season on a per 90 minute basis. Swansea's Leon Britton the lowest. The simplest way to look at a player’s Threat is to think about it as raw potential.

Two players who really stick out in the Threat column are WBA’s Sessegnon and Snodgrass (now at Hull, last season Norwich). Both were heavily involved with their team’s attack last season. Unfortunately (especially for Norwich), neither team could score goals very well. So, despite a lot of threat/potential shown by both players it didn’t translate to a great deal of points in Fantasy Premier League. This is particular true when a player (e.g. Snodgrass) relies on a lot of assists (key passes) to score points. If his team can’t score, he can’t score. This is why player’s like Siggy and Puncheon (Jasey?) often perform better – they score their own goals.

Verdict

We rate Sigurdsson as the best £6M midfielder for GW1 due to his historic points return and Swansea’s overall better attacking potency and opening fixtures. Jason Puncheon comes second. Snodgrass and Sessegnon are one’s to watch out for if their clubs hit a purple patch.

We'll be answering more of our reader's questions in our upcoming 'Q&A Mailbag' Newsletter which is our free weekly FPL email.

If you enjoyed this post and analysis make sure to check out our Pre-Season Guide which you can use yourself to look at the form and potential (threat) of players in any price or position.

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