GW11 Attack and Defence Rankings

A run through the goal and clean sheet potential on offer for fantasy football managers ahead of gameweek 11.

This week brings a significant refresh behind the sconces of our team attack and defence ratings. You can see the output of this over at our Fixture Analyser (FA). In this article we’re going to use the ‘Predicted Goals’ view of the FA to rate each team’s attack and defence potential for Gameweek 11. The table can be found at the bottom of this article.

The biggest climbers in the refresh have been Southampton. The Saints defence has always been highly rated in our numbers but it’s their attack which has seen the largest rise. And it shows. Koeman’s team are the best bet for a weekend goalfest up against Leicester City. Players like Pelle and Tadic are of course well established in FPL teams by now. Watch out too for Saido Mane; he’s the Saints midfielder who is most likely to get in the box and make runs in and around Pelle. 

Next up are Manchester United, at home to Palace. United are slowly getting better this season and look particularly capable of beating up on weaker team’s defences. Doesn’t mean they’ll always win games necessarily, but they’ll score goals. There’s an odd narrative in the football media that Neil Warnock has hailed some kind of revolution at Crystal Palace; we can’t see it, and, without Di Maria in our own FPL team, will be watching this one from behind the sofa!

Despite being on the brink of a Champion’s League exit, we still rate the Man City as the top attacking team in the Premier League right now. And top means top, even top above Chelsea. They lead the league in total shots, shots in the box, shots in the danger zone (centre of box and 6 yard box), 2nd in shots on target (behind Arsenal), and in ‘Expected Goals’ (fancy stats metric of all shots weighted by location, type, etc.). QPR are pretty much at the opposite end of the table for defensive stats. It’s only home advantage that keeps them in with a hope. Sergio Aguero is our captain pick this week.

After Southampton, West Ham are probably the most improved team in the league year. Unlike the Saints, their underlying performances don’t quite justify their lofty league position and they didn’t create much at Hull last weekend. However, a travelling Aston Villa side shouldn’t pose much problem for the likes of Downing and Sakho to add to their impressive fantasy form of late. 

Liverpool vs Chelsea is GW11’s big clash. It’s probably going to be a boring one though, right? Liverpool can’t create anything going forward at the moment, but Mourinho will play it as cautious as ever and probably ‘power out’ a 1-0 win. An early goal from Liverpool would certainly spice things up. We’ve sold Sterling from our team this week... and so have hundreds of thousands of other fantasy managers. What’s the chances then he pops up with a goal? The bookies give Sterling 12/5 odds for a goal anytime. Diego Costa is evens.

Other teams who should score goals: Spurs, Arsenal and Everton. Swansea and Burnley too, if they can catch a break. 

Defensively, Villa’s ineptitude at the sharp end of the pitch places West Ham at the top of the clean sheet rankings. Next up are Southampton (of course), followed by Man City and Everton, who will both need to keep the mistakes to a minimum with away games in store. Burnley are a nice cheap option for a clean sheet against Hull; life in the Championship should have prepared them for the physical challenge of Steve Bruce’s midfield. 

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