Predicted Goals and 10 Week Rankings

In this article we take a simple look at the predicted number of goals scored by each team over the first ten gameweeks of the season.

The methodology we've used here is the same as we used in our 'Guide to the Opening Fixtures' post a few days ago, except we've extended the number of games looked at to 10.

We're not going to talk to much about it. The data tells it's own story. One thing we will say that, having done these fixture analysers for a few years now, 10 games is usually enough to have pretty much smoothed out any variations in fixtures and what you are left with is essentially the teams ordered in goals scored from last season.

There are a couple of teams that stand out though. As per the 3 & 6GW rankings, Manchester United sit in a very decent position, and even a small increase in their goal threat this season (which is very much anticipated under Van Gaal) would see them vying with City and Liverpool as top scorers at the 10-game mark. Sharp-eyed readers will also note that City and Liverpool's average goals per game is closer  2 than the 3 of last season. This is partly due to the way predicitng scores work out - they rarely expect 6-0 thrashings! But also, it has to be said, City's and Liverpool's first 10 games aren't the hottest they'll have all year.

Another team that stands out though is QPR. We've of course had to estimate how many goals the promoted teams will score and have done this based on their record in the Championship last season and the typical performance of promoted clubs once they reach the top flight. To cut a long story short, they've got one of the lowest overall expected goals per game in our data but still sit fairly comfortably halfway up the 10GW rankings. Looking closer you can see they have home games with Hull, Sunderland, Stoke, West Ham and Aston Villa in the first 10 weeks. Home rotation, anyone?

Team Predicted Goals GW1-10 Ranking
Man City 20.6
 
Liverpool 20.0
 
Man United 17.0
 
Chelsea 16.2
 
Arsenal 15.6
 
Everton 14.4
 
Tottenham 14.4
 
Southampton 14.4
 
Swansea 13.4
 
Stoke 12.5
 
QPR 12.5
 
Newcastle 12.4
 
Sunderland 12.3
 
West Brom 12.2
 
West Ham 11.6
 
Hull 11.4
 
Leicester 11.3
 
Aston Villa 11.3
 
Crystal Palace 10.9
 
Burnley 10.2
 

Check these out too...

Simple Guide to the Opening Fixtures

The 2014/15 Fantasy Premier League season is just around the corner. The opening games are important – some say crucial – to your fantasy fortunes. In this article we’ll give a simple overview of the first 6 gameweeks plus a GW1 FPL team with potential to get you out the blocks.

Don't forget to subscribe

Signing up to InsideFPL is as simple as entering your email address. All you'll ever receive is our best and most up to date content.

  •       No Spam - never ever ever (we hate it as much as you do!).
  •       Current and in-depth analysis - our top boffins at your disposal.
  •       Special subscriber benefits - secret hints and tips only for our community.

Subscribe now for free!

comments powered by Disqus