GW29 Captain Analysis

Eden Hazard looks the most likely captain option for GW29 but how dos his form stack up against the contenders?

Opponent H/A PPG Returns PPG H/A Returns H/A Bookies Odds
Eto'o Tottenham Home 5.6 46% 7.2 67% 45%
Hazard Tottenham Home 6.3 44% 7.1 50% 36%
Van Persie West Brom Away 6.3 67% 6.1 57% 53%
Rooney West Brom Away 6.2 60% 6.9 70% 44%
Lallana Crystal Palace Away 5.2 46% 4.5 42% 31%

PPG = points per game played over 60 mintues, PPG H/A = points per game played at home or away as per this week's fixture. Returns = Games >60mins scoring 5 points or more. Bookies Odds is converted probability of an anytime goal

The return to form last week of a certain Luis Suarez really threw the monkey in the oven (what?!) with regards to FPL captaincy. After a run of 6 games where Suarez sputtered and Sturridge soared it was typical timing from the FPL gods. As soon as the shift in confidence between the two seemed to reach a tipping point it all went about face.

We think it’s worth reminding the deities however that captaining Sturridge in GW27 and GW28 was only 2 points worse off than captaining Suarez. Captaining Sturridge then Adebayor would have been better. Of course, only switching to Sturridge last week would have been a painful and never-to-be-repeated experience for many a FPL manager.

This brings us nicely then on to this week’s sure-fire captain favourite; Eden Hazard. Owned by most managers and still racking up the points not captaining Hazard this week is going to be like not captaining Suarez last week. Looked at in isolation Hazard may not be the best option. His consistency of returns may not be so hott, his PPG at Stamford Bridge may be behind Samuel Eto’o, he may not be the bookies favourite for an ‘anytime goal’; but he will be the favourite in your minileagues. Deviating from Hazard as your captain begs the question do you have more to gain or more to lose?

It’s not a question we can answer theoretically to be honest so we have to think practically, in which case Hazard seems to be the most logical option for GW29 captaincy. In practise, although he’s the bookie’s favourite and a fantasy legend, Van Persie is probably not in your team, and at £13.6m is not someone you can simply transfer in for the weekend. Rooney makes a more viable alternative and has been a popular transfer this week. The stats above, particularly his form away from home, suggest he does indeed have a case but to be perfectly honest we wouldn’t be confident backing United away at a fairly robust West Brom side.

Back at Stamford Bridge, we figure Samuel Eto’o is marginally more likely for points than Hazard and he’s someone at £8.2m that you could just slot him in for a weekend’s captain punt. Thinking practically again though, you’re going to need to sell him again next week; according to his boss, Eto’o is not a fan of the away game.

Whatever transpires on the pitch, Hazard will be the people’s captain choice for GW29. If you hand him your armband too and he’s outscored by one of the above it’s really not likely to dent your overall ranking. It’s true what they say about FPL; it’s a marathon not a sprint, even at this stage in the season. Success does not come from boom or bust gameweeks. If a real jump up the rankings is what you’re after then look to one of the others, but you roll the dice, not just on the player himself, but against 80% of your minileague.

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